How Much is Out There?

The biggest problem we face is having a grasp on the prevalence of the infection. Science reports on the variations and disagreements across the board. We have argued the following:

1. Testing is critical, both for the RNA and the Antibody, Ab.

2. Testing has a False Negative (FN) and False Positive (FP). The latter is as bad as the former. A False negative allows an infected individual to continue to infect. A false positive tells us that there are more infected people with no symptoms. Both can be dangerous.

3. The FP, FN conundrum is solved via validation of testing methodologies. Yet even they are not done well.

4. The fundamental issues regarding transmission do not seem to be well understood. Masks may or may not be of any use. They are symbols,  shibboleth to be used to make it appear we know what we are doing. The irony is that one sees health care workers with masks but no gloves. The gloves should and must be the first line of defense. On removing the mask one must first keep the glove and then remove the mask and then immediately clean the face and hands. Not to mention totally infested head hair, a significant carrier, a literal petri dish.

5. Sampling theory for populations is a well known technique. However we seem to be getting poorly done samples that may be anecdotal but useless. Furthermore we can adjust for FN/FB biases if and only if we know the specific FN/FB numbers. Otherwise we seem to be "shingling in the fog" and there is no roof below us.

Just some thoughts after discussions with colleagues.